Wishy-Washy Models Keep Forecast in Doubt

nam_namer_066_1000_500_thick Several days ago, we warned that Thursday’s winter storm was only the first round.  That’s still true, but what we expect to happen in the coming days remains a well-guarded mystery.  That’s because several computer models have had a tough time determining what our next snow maker will do as it moves through the central United States.  With that said I cannot stress how everything that follows this sentence needs to be taken with a grain of salt, because the forecast could change not once, but several times over the next 72 hours.

Here’s what we DO know.  A storm system will track through the central U.S. from Monday through Wednesday.  This storm system is expected to dump heavy snow across much of the Great Plains.  But from there, that’s where this story gets a little trickier.

Depending on the intensity, available moisture, and above all the track of the storm, parts of Iowa could see significant snow.  As of this posting on Saturday Evening that snow appears to be confined to the southeastern quadrant of the state, with the heavier snow totals further south and east of Iowa.  But as I just said, that is “as of now.”

Earlier model runs have brought a significant amount of snow, well above 6” to portions of southern and eastern Iowa.  There has been little in the way of continuity.  So for now we are left to hold back on any meaningful snow projects, only to say that snow is likely, especially for southeast Iowa Monday and Tuesday.

We are hoping by late in the day on Saturday to get a better handle on this storm, and I would imagine areas at greatest risk could find themselves under a Winter Storm Watch as early as Sunday morning. Gut feeling?  The worst of this storm may skirt under Iowa.  But that’s not definite, and the forecast needs to be closely monitored as we inch closer to snow time.

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