Winter Storm Monday

Iowa Snowfall Forecast

lsr_snowfall

After a less than impressive system moved through the state last night, we are keeping an eye on another system that will move through Monday night into Tuesday. This one should hopefully be more impressive than last nights. To recap last nights system, 1 to 3 inches of snow fall across the state. The graphic above is of snowfall reports in the last 12 hours so that is why no snowfall is being shown across western Iowa. Most of their snow fell before midnight.

watchLast night we told you about the potential for accumulating snow around 6″ across northeast Iowa. This morning, many of you woke up to the news that this watch had been expanded. This winter storm watch remains in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night. Inside of this watch, accumulations of 4 to 6 inches will be possible along and east of a line from Storm Lake to Ankeny to Montezuma. Heavier amounts of 6 to 8 inches are expected along and east of a line from Emmetsburg to Fort Dodge to Traer. A northwest wind of 25 to 30mph with gusts near 40mph at times. This may lead to reduced visibilities below a half mile or less at times.

NAM Snowfall ForecastLooking at the model outputs, the 12z NAM has a sharp cut off line on the southern edge of this system. The NAM has the heaviest snow off to the north across northeast Iowa.

GFS Snowfall ForecastOn the flip side, the 12z GFS is further to the south with the bulk of the heavy snow across central Iowa.

Iowa Snowfall ForecastBecause of the two differences in the track, a combination of the two is how the National Weather Service is currently forecasting where the heaviest of the snowfall accumulations will end up. However, any shift in the track will change these numbers. Once the snow begins to fall, it won’t take long for it to accumulate. Snowfall rates and ratios are going to be high. This is what will lead to those 4″ to 8″ accumulations in a short period of time. Snow will begin to move into the northwest part of the state after 3pm and will be out of the state by early Tuesday morning. .

Something else that will have to be watched is the potential for a blizzard warning to be issued. As we saw last night, it doesn’t take a whole lot of snow for the strong winds to blow it around. There will be much to watched over the next 24 hours so continue to check back here for all of the very latest information.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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