Over the past few days, we have been keeping a close eye on the potential first major snowfall for parts of Nebraska, northwest Iowa, Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin. Currently there are winter weather advisories out in central and western Nebraska, stretching to the northeast into northern Wisconsin.
A surface low pressure will exit out of the central plains and will push to the east towards Iowa. The low will be centered over southeast Nebraska Tuesday night around 7pm. It will continue to lift off to the northeast and will track right across central Iowa in the overnight hours on Tuesday. Because the low tracks right over central Iowa, much of the state will see all rain, however, places off to the northwest of the low, will see snow. There have been some difficulties forecasting how much snow will fall.
One of the forecast difficulties is the moisture return. Temperatures will be cold enough for all snow across Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and Minnesota. However, there is not a whole lot of moisture in these areas to work with. The bulk of the moisture will be centered over central Iowa. This is where rainfall totals will easily be over an inch. If the moisture was able to move to the northwest a bit more, than I could see higher snowfall totals. This will be difficult as dry air will move southward across Minnesota tomorrow, keeping the deep moisture to the south.
For now, it appears the greatest snowfall totals will be in central Nebraska. This is where 3”-5” with locally higher amounts will be possible. Would not be surprised to see some 6” snowfall totals in this area. Some may say that ground temperatures are surely too warm for snow to accumulate. All it will take is for snowfall to fall at a quick rate and snowfall totals will add up pretty quickly.
For far northwest Iowa, from a Kossuth to Plymouth county line and to the northwest, it appears that 2”-4” is possible with locally higher amounts. We will continue to keep an eye on this and will bring you the very latest on our Facebook page and right here at Iowachase.com.