The grand finale of sorts for this storm system and Iowa finally come to a head on Wednesday. This is when we expect to see a cold front sweep through the state, bringing an end to our brief heat wave and triggering a final round of showers and thunderstorms. But it’s not quite as clear cut as it would seem.
The greatest variables still in question is what type of storm system will exist by Wednesday. If this turns into a closed low scenario it could have major impacts on where severe weather will develop. And as always the timing of the cold frontal passage will play a role in what type of severe weather Iowa will see on this day. There is a lot that needs to play out over the next 3 days to really nail down where severe weather will strike.
With that in mind, the Storm Prediction Center continues to leave out Iowa in the extended range risk area currently plotted for a large area to our south and west. This is where a more favorable environment exists for a widespread severe weather event. Even so, I would not rule out seeing Iowa added to this risk area within the next day or two as the forecast becomes a little clearer. Overall I still feel this might be the best shot Iowa has for severe weather from this storm system and, although not in the risk area just yet, bears the most watching in the coming days.