White Christmas?

GEM Model Accumulated Snowfall 12/25

B4571vKCMAAVU2pOur stretch of above average temperatures is coming to a end this evening as a cold front works across the state. This morning, records were broken. New record high minimum temperatures were set, with many of the previous records set in early 1900’s.

iowa_q2_1dWith the above freezing temperatures today, our precipitation stayed in the liquid form. Rainfall accumulations as of 6pm range from a quarter of an inch to almost an inch in places. As the cold front moves through the state this evening, light snow will be possible across northwest Iowa.

hires_t2m_max_iowa_9After the cold front moves through, winds will be gusty tomorrow. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20’s with wind chills in the single digits to lower teens. However, the bigger question we keep getting, is if this colder weather means a white Christmas is still possible.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_iowa_41Looking over the very latest data, a chance of a white Christmas is looking to be low. Our next chance of precipitation will come Thursday night into Friday, but the bulk of this moisture looks to stay south of Iowa. Enough forcing many push far enough north that a few light snow showers may be possible across the southern two to three tiers of counties in Iowa. After this system, another quick moving system may bring a few more snow showers across the state around the 23rd to 24th. The graphic above is of GFS beta which goes through noon on Christmas. As you can see, there is not a whole lot in the way of accumulations.

cmc_snow_acc_east_41The GEM is also showing a similar set up with not much in the way of accumulations between now and Christmas. It does show a little more snow than the GFS does with the our next system on Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF, it is also on the same track as the GEM and GFS.

gfs_jet_300_conus_65As for the extended, much colder weather will be building into the state the day after Christmas, which will last into the new year. Another system looks to impact the Midwest on Christmas day, bringing a chance of snow. As for snowfall accumulations and best chances for accumulation, it is too far out to determine. If you are traveling before Christmas, things are looking good so far, but traveling back may be another story. Stay tuned for all of the very latest information right here at iowachase.com.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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