Snowy Weekend?

GFS ForecastThe questions have been coming in with what will be happening this weekend. Right now, this system is still coming together, so this is just an early look, so expect things to change. A low pressure system will form over the four corners region and will be lifting off to the northeast. The track will be the biggest influence on where the greatest snowfall will set up. Any shift in the track will have impacts on snowfall totals.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_20The GFS is taking the low right across Missouri, which would place the best chance for accumulating snow across central Kansas, into southeast Iowa, and on up into southern Wisconsin. The graphic above is at noon Saturday and as you can see, the greatest snowfall potential is in the areas list previously. Places further to the south like central and southern Missouri and southern Illinois will stay warm enough for all rain.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_22The GFS continues to track this low off into the Great Lakes, and phasing will take place which will strengthen this low to a pressure of 995mb.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_24The 00z GFS is not the most impressive with snowfall totals, as it has backed off a bit. Earlier runs of the GFS seemed to have a more widespread area of moderate snowfall totals. As a reminder this is just an early look, so do not take this output as forecast.

cmc_snow_acc_east_25The GEM also has a similar track to the GFS, with similar snowfall accumulations.  The 12z ECMWF was taking a more southerly approach with this storm and had accumulating snow across central and southern Missouri, across southern Illinois, and to the east across southern Ohio. The ECMWF does appear to be the outlier right now, so a GFS/GEM approach seems more reasonable. As we stated earlier, this is still 5 days out so a lot will continue to change so this storm will need to be monitored.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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