The name of the game this week has been relatively marginal severe risks, at least in the long-term, and Friday will be no different. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a rather large “see text” area for the final day of the work week. As you can see to the right, this 5% minimal risk includes the lower portion of Iowa, much of Missouri, as well as portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois and Indiana.
A storm system is set to track across the area with an eastward-draped warm front, similar to the storm that could affect Iowa and Illinois today, just a few hundred miles further to the south in its track. There are a lot of question marks with this storm system in terms of available energy and dynamics. As a result, the SPC has not pinned down a risk area just yet. But I do expect that to change and we should see a slight risk area materialize on Thursday.
This far out, I would expect Missouri to face the greatest risk of severe weather, with the best potential for tornadoes in the vicinity of the triple point, with hail and strong winds becoming the primary threats later in the evening further to the east.
Although not a major threat to Iowa, we’ll monitor this storm system for any changes in track and post updates on the forecast for our followers that live outside of Iowa’s borders.