Wednesday Tornado Threat Increasing

Severe Risk for Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Severe Risk for Wednesday, May 13, 2009

A firm solution to what will happen on Wednesday remains up in the air.  As I’ve said in previous posts, the final solution will really boil down to what happens tomorrow morning.

A cold front will make its way through the state.  The trouble is the models appear to be slowing its progress which could mean more time for heating before the front comes through eastern Iowa and triggers severe thunderstorm development.

Here’s where things get tricky.  Models seem to think the front will not push through as soon as first thought.  This means if enough instability develops rapid thunderstorm development including tornado-producing supercells are possible in eastern Iowa.  At this time the time for development appears to be between 3pm and 6pm on Wednesday.

Storms will fire along the front tonight to our west.  This will create another problem.  If thunderstorms and cloud cover linger over eastern Iowa Wednesday morning, we might not see enough sun to help create instability in the atmosphere for the afternoon frontal passage.

But no matter what, a threat DOES exist across eastern Iowa for strong storms.  All modes of severe weather are possible (large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes).  We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops and will provide futher updates once the Storm Prediction Center issues its next update at 6Z Wednesday (1:00am).

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