Warming Up

ECMWF Precipitation & MSLP

After a stretch of record breaking cold weather, the pattern will be shifting as we head into the weekend. Thursday will be a fairly nice day compared to what we have been experiencing lately. Highs on Thursday will be in the 20’s, but the winds will calmer out of the northwest at 5mph to 10mph. The warming trend will continue into the weekend as our winds will be shifting on Friday to have a southerly component to them, which will then pull in some warmer air.

Temperature Sounding

Friday night we are watching the potential for some freezing drizzle and light rain. Moisture will be moving in from the south, and initially, temperature profiles are just below freezing near the surface that a freezing drizzle may be possible. However, as the night progresses, warmer air will continue to move into the state, and this will warm the surface temperatures to near or just above freezing, and this will transition the freezing drizzle over to a very light rain. Not expecting any ice accumulation, but a few slick spots may appear Friday night.

Highs Saturday

Highs Saturday 11/22/2014

Any slick spots from Friday night will quickly melt as our temperatures on Saturday will be climbing into the upper 30’s across the north, to the mid 40’s across the south.

ECMWF Precipitation & MSLPOur next weather maker, will then be approaching the state from the south Sunday afternoon. A low pressure system will track just across northeast Missouri/southeast Iowa. Typically this is the prime location for heavy snow to occur during the winter for central and eastern Iowa. However, our temperatures will still be in the 40’s on Sunday and this will put a damper to our snow chances. It isn’t until the low moves further off to the east before colder air wraps around on the backside of the low on Monday that rain will then transition to snow. Right now, not expecting much accumulations on Monday, as the bigger story will be the rainfall totals.

ECMWF Precipitation Totals

Rainfall Totals on Sunday 11/23/2014

The ECMFW has the track of the low further to the west, which would put the heavier rainfall totals across central and eastern Iowa. So far this season, the ECMFW has been the most consistent, so that is why we are showing it. It is currently showing rainfall totals of 1″ to 1.5″ with isolated 2″ amounts possible across eastern Iowa.

After this system moves through, another cold front will move through the state early next week, lowering our temperatures back in the 20’s and 30’s. This will be setting the stage leading into Thanksgiving.

ECMWF 300mb Winds

Some of you have been messaging us about the holiday travel. Of course a lot will change between now and then but the weather is looking fine though Thanksgiving day. Temperatures look to remain in the 20’s and 30’s for highs.  After Thanksgiving day, another large system has our attention. Going off of the latest ECMFW run, the jet stream on Thanksgiving is really going to be digging into the lower southwest.  This is something that we will be keeping an eye on as it may potentially lead to some snow on black Friday into the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

As always, we will continue to bring you all the very latest updates on our Facebook and Twitter pages, as well as right here at www.iowachase.com. Also, for a limited time, we have brought back the Iowa Storm Chasing Network clothing. If you need a great Christmas gift idea, check out all of the clothing that we have to offer. Visit: http://teespring.com/iastormchasing.

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Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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