We will be keeping a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours. A warm, unstable airmass will build into the state ahead of a cold front tomorrow afternoon. This will provide the right dynamics for isolated supercells that will merge into a line.
There is some uncertainty between models, but it appears that the southeast half of the state will have the greatest severe weather potential. This includes the risk for isolated tornadoes, as isolated supercells will be likely initially. Temperatures will climb into the 90’s with dew points in the 70’s, and CAPE values over 4000 J/kg. This environment is very favorable for all modes of severe weather, so we will be keeping a close eye on it.
After an hour or two, storms will begin to grow upscale and form a line of storms. Something that we have all been familiar with this past week. This will transition the tornado threat over to a damaging wind threat.
Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a slight risk, but we expect that with current model trends, that areas across southeast Iowa, will be upgraded to an enhanced risk. We will have our chase team out Wednesday, streaming and tracking these storms. Continue to follow the Iowa Storm Chasing Network for the latest updates.