Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will occur late this afternoon into tonight from eastern parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. This risk, particularly for severe wind, includes the Twin Cities area. Additional strong to severe storms may extend southward into the mid-Missouri Valley and the central and southern Plains, as well as from northern Mississippi to Virginia and North Carolina.
Storms will develop after 3pm across eastern South Dakota/Western Minnesota and will track off to the east/southeast. This is when storms will have the greatest tornado potential. A tornado or two may be possible across northwest Iowa, but they will be embedded in a line of storms that will move through northern Iowa after 7pm.
Eventually, storms will merge into a bowing segment, and will push to the southeast. This is when the tornado potential will transition over to a damaging wind threat. As of 11:30PM CDT, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the enhanced risk further south into Iowa due to this damaging wind threat expected overnight. A derecho like event may unfold this evening as this bowing segment tracks to the southeast across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.
Our chase team is in this area, and will be streaming live to ChaserNation.com later this afternoon as storms begin to develop. Continue to check back to IowaChase.com for the latest developments.