With a quiet Monday on tap for eastern Iowa, attention remains focused on Tuesday. Storms later today in the Dakotas and Minnesota are not expected to greatly impact our area, but the residual clouds could play a major role Tuesday morning.
Depending on that cloud cover, temperatures on Tuesday could change drastically. Either way, high amounts of energy is expected Tuesday afternoon in the atmosphere. The only question will be whether waves of energy off of the advancing cold front are strong enough to break what could be a rather strong cap.
Some models pin the cap to weaken first in northern Iowa. If that happens, with enough clearing before afternoon, we could see storms begin sometime around the 3-4pm timeframe. If it does not, storms might hold off until closer to 7pm.
Either way, there is a pretty good chance of severe weather somewhere in Iowa tomorrow, the questions surround the potential of a widespread and organized severe weather outbreak. Shear values will be modestly strong, that will aid in supercell and tornadic development.
The chase team will continue to monitor the latest model runs throughout the day. Will also keep tabs on the final Day 2 Convective Outlook due at 1730z (12:30pm). Also hope to provide a second debrief on the potential for severe weather later tonight.