The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk of severe storms for tomorrow with the main risks being large hail and damaging winds. But could this all just be a tease by getting our hopes up?
As I look at this tonight, I am having my doubts about how this will pan out. Earlier model runs had storms initiating around the 4 o’clock hour in northwest Iowa, out ahead of the cold front that will be pushing its way to the southeast. Newest model runs have storm in northwest Iowa at 7pm. If these new model runs hold true, then our severe chances will be greatly diminished compared to if storms moved through late afternoon into the early evening hours as the peak heating of the day will be gone. Another thing that has me concerned is instability and shear values are low which does not help. As of tonight, I believe that the best chance for seeing severe storms will be across northwest and northern Iowa. The key times for seeing storms will be after 6pm and before 2am. Now as we all know, weather is constantly changing so we will keep an eye on this risk and will bring you the very latest update tomorrow morning. Be sure to check back on our facebook page and right here at Iowachase.com.