A shower or two is not out of the question between now and Wednesday morning, but the main concern right now is the threat of a severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. The graphic to the left shows a very general slight risk for much of Iowa on Wednesday. But there are growing indications this will likely need to be upgraded as early as tomorrow morning.
A cold front is expected to sweep through the state on Wednesday afternoon and evening, ahead of it will be very warm and very unstable air across the state. Although capping in the atmosphere could prevent thunderstorm development, this is not expected to last long if at all during the day on Thursday. All modes of severe weather would be possible, with the greatest risk for tornadoes, wind and hail currently expected in northern parts of the state.
Barring any changes to the current thinking, I expect the area placed under a risk for severe weather to increase before Wednesday arrives, we’ll also get a better handle on the best places, if any, chase teams need to begin thinking about as a starting point.
There are no updated outlooks today for Wednesday’s event, but we’ll keep an eye on the latest model runs for any changes and pass along any new information. Otherwise we’ll bring you another update when the next outlook is posted early Tuesday morning.