We continue to track the winter storm that will bring the possibility for heavy snow early next week. Snowfall amounts have not changed over the last few days, which is surprising since there is still plenty of time for things to change. What has changed from run-to-run is that track of the storm. Some of the runs track the low further southeast, but will then quickly move back to the northwest in following runs.
Snow will likely begin late Monday night. Some snow may begin to fall around the end of the caucus across southern Iowa. The snow will then continue to advance off to the northeast throughout the night and during the day Tuesday. The heaviest of the snow will occur during the day Tuesday. The winds will also be very strong during this time, which will lead to blizzard like conditions. The strong winds will also create blowing and drifting snow, which will create hazardous road conditions.
The one item that we continue to watch the most is the track of the storm. Any shift in the track will move the greatest snowfall accumulations northwest or southeast. The latest GFS, which is pictured at the top of this article, continues to show the greatest snowfall accumulations will fall across the central portion of the state. However, the GEM continues to flip flop on the track. The latest GEM pulls the system so far southeast, that the heaviest snow is not even in the state. The GEM did this a few runs ago, but then quickly moved back to the northwest. We will have to see if in this evenings update if it does the same thing.
The potential for 6″ to 12″ of snow does appear to be likely, with the possibility of isolated higher amounts. Continue to check back for the latest updates as we continue to track this winter storm.