Timing is Everything

pocketwatch2107585m That phrase rings true in romance, comedy and yes… even weather.  With plenty of uncertainty in the models, confidence of a severe weather threat in Iowa this weekend is low.

gfs_slp_066m The best chance for any organized storms will rest in western Iowa… because of timing.  Most models agree storm initiation should start Friday afternoon or evening in western Iowa or eastern Nebraska.  Although this GFS model seen on the right shows a good setup for western Iowa, I’m beginning to think Nebraska is where the (if any) fireworks will be.  Otherwise, severe weather should stay well south of us in Texas and Oklahoma.

As for us? Showers and thunderstorms should reach eastern Iowa during the overnight and morning hours on Saturday.  Barring some type of wind event, this pretty much negates our chances for severe storms.  Redevelopment on Saturday is expected well to our east.  So what about that other chance I mentioned yesterday.

gfs_slp_144m That comes during the first half of next week.  Again, timing remains a concern, but this storm system looks stronger and better organized once it takes shape.  With a low tracking northeast and passing just west of Iowa, the final setup could produce a good chance of severe weather somewhere in the state on Tuesday.

Of course this is all nearly a week out and the forecast will undoubtedly change in the coming days.  So as always, stay tuned.

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