Threats of Severe Weather as Week Ends on Rocky Note

day2otlk_0600 A pair of severe weather threats could make for some sleepless nights across Iowa to wrap up the week.  There’s a lot to get through so let’s dive on in.  The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has posted a slight risk for severe weather that covers the western half of Iowa on Thursday.

This threat includes all modes of severe weather (wind, tornadoes and hail).  Storm development is expected to begin just west of Iowa and storms will push into the state as the evening hours roll on.

day2probotlk_0600_any This morning, models are indicating a setup favorable for some tornadoes and could continue that threat into the overnight hours, especially across portions of southern Iowa.  The greatest threat for organized severe weather however remains in the western portion of the state.

Storms will roll through Iowa during the overnight hours and will have to be monitored for a possible long duration wind event.  This would impact eastern Iowa very early on Friday morning.

day3otlk_0730 Once that round ends, another could develop before the storm system pushes out of the state Friday Night.  The SPC posted a slight risk for the eastern half of Iowa for Friday.  This is a conditional threat depending on the leftover rain in the area after Thursday’s development. 

But at this time it appears we’ll see a break in the late morning or mid afternoon.  Followed by redevelopment as early as 3:00pm along or east of Interstate 35.  These storms will have the energy available to become severe and generate another round of strong storms.

day3prob_0730 It’s expected these storms will push through the eastern half of the state relatively quickly, but again, all modes of severe weather are possible.  Once those storms push out the atmosphere should stabilize behind the front, but I’m keeping a close eye on the weekend.  Although severe chances are minimal, showers and thunderstorms remain a threat.

That’s bad news for farmers who were enjoying a good start to the planting season.  Now with several rounds of rain in recent days, work has ground to a halt and farmers wait for another extended period of dry weather to complete this year’s planting.

We’ll continue to monitor any changes in the severe weather threat and bring you an update this afternoon as Thursday’s outlook is updated.  At this time though I can tell you the models have had a good handle on this storm for several days and I do not expect any drastic changes to the going forecast.

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