Well severe weather could make a return to Iowa Friday, but the risks are still a little muddled. The reason I’m emphasizing the chance of tornadoes on Friday is because of an expected triple point. This time that point should be a little ways from the low pressure that, as of Friday afternoon, should still be somewhere in central Kansas or Nebraska.
The Storm Prediction Center does not give exact severe weather threats in its Day 2 Outlook, but they do indicate a prime area for supercell development that includes southwest Iowa.
Currently, the SPC is warning the setup in this area looks supportive of tornadoes, even strong ones (rated EF-2 or higher). This is a very interesting setup but one that looks to be all or nothing. Chasers if you plan to go out tomorrow, feel free to email us at [email protected] , we’re always looking to network efforts on days such as this.
At this time it does not appear this threat will transfer into a severe weather event on Saturday. The storm system is expected to move to the southeast which is unusual for this time of year. I do have some concerns for southern Iowa as some models try to keep the low tracking across Iowa on Saturday. But with this storm’s setup, I don’t think the worst will be anywhere near the low. Even so it’s something we’ll continue to watch in the hours ahead.
For now attention turns to Friday, we’ll continue to monitor the situation and bring you updates including this afternoon when the next outlook is released from the SPC.
Looking into the extended, the long range models continue to indicate a powerful storm system in the Midwest next weekend. Of course this is a long ways off but bears watching as the storm’s track appears to be a little more traditional for this time of year.