And here we go folks. It’s not really a substantial threat for severe weather, but with warmer temperatures finally making their way back to Iowa, the threat of thunderstorms has returned with it. The Storm Prediction Center has posted this “See Text” area for parts of Iowa. This covers the threat of some isolated severe weather Thursday Night and into Friday Morning.
Right now the primary and what appears to be the only threat with any strong thunderstorms is occasional hail greater than 1″ in diameter (quarter sized). This is a very conditional risk that, although not great, could produce a noisy night for some in Iowa.
Taking a closer look at the risk, you can see a minimal 5% risk area for southern Iowa. This is the area where a frontal boundary might set up shop Thursday evening. Elevated storms could reach heights that could produce large hail. At this time there appears to be a very minimal or near-zero risk of strong wind gusts and/or tornadoes.
Again, I want to stress that this is a very minor threat, but it’s a sign of things to come in the weeks and months ahead. For instance, a stronger risk of severe weather is already forecast for areas of the Great Plains this weekend. Whether this will at all affect Iowa remains to be seen but at this time it appears the greatest threat for severe weather this weekend should stay well to our south.