Threat Analysis For This Weekend

The Upper Midwest appears to be in the clear for organized severe weather this weekend, but there is a threat for organized strong storms further to the south.  Thunderstorms today are not expected to create an organized severe threat across the central United States so we turn our attention to Sunday.

risk

As you can see in the graphic above, the Storm Prediction Center has forecasted a slight risk for a very small area along the Kansas / Oklahoma border.  This is the only area the SPC felt comfortable putting the risk for organized severe weather.  Beyond that, there is a much broader area highlighted for general thunderstorm development.

This area could see an isolated strong storm or two, but no organized severe weather threat is expected.  The reason for this uncertainty is simple, a lack of energy.  Known as CAPE, this available energy is not expected to be readily available to storms that develop with this system.  Overall this storm system stretches over a large area.

The one best place for energy and instability?  Again, that small area where the slight risk exists.  This is where a cold front just ahead of a dryline will interact with that instability and may be capable of producing a few storms with large hail and/or strong damaging winds.  At this time the tornado threat even for this area appears quite low.

Now take a look at the severe weather forecast for Monday…

risk 2

As you can see a much larger area along that cold front faces a threat for strong storms.  The slight risk area stretches from St. Louis all the way back to Oklahoma City.

Instability is much better on this day, but still far from idea.  Again the tornado threat appears low but possible, with the primary threats coming from strong damaging winds and large hail.

There are additional severe weather threats as we move further into the work week that we’ll be monitoring.  Our chase team will travel to Oklahoma this weekend to track the threats beginning on Monday.  Be sure to check back with us in the coming days for much more on the threats across the Central United States. And be sure to like our Facebook page!

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