The Ever Changing and Unpredictable Forecast

1000am radar This is certainly not a situation where anything in terms of severe weather comes close to following a script.  With so many rounds of thunderstorms across the region, so many boundaries and vortices, nothing seems to be following a pattern here.

All the ingredients were in place for a widespread severe weather event last night. Instead, heavy rain from general thunderstorms barreled through the Upper Midwest.  And it seems that with every updated severe weather outlook, the forecast changes over and over again.

The bottom line, there’s little rhyme or reason to any of this and the models are having an impossible time trying to piece it all together.  So for the next few days things are just going to have to stay pretty fluid in terms of forecasting severe weather.

day1otlk_1630 To the right, today’s general slight risk for severe weather across Iowa.  Again, like the last few days, strong winds appears to be the primary threat.  Once the current round of showers and thunderstorms move through, it’s possible that parts of the state could clear out, see some sun and destabilize the atmosphere.

But that’s been a difficult task over the last couple of days.  If it does happen, showers and thunderstorms will develop and some should reach severe limits.

day1probotlk_1630_wind Taking a look at the graphic to the left, you see the highest risk for strong winds in extreme southern Iowa.  This is where a boundary is believed to be stretched near the Iowa/Missouri border.  Forecasters are having a hard time keeping track of this boundary and where it’s moving… if at all.

As I’ve said before, beyond severe weather, flooding issues will have to be closely monitored.  Another round of heavy rain fell overnight in parts of southern Iowa, especially the southeast corner of the state.

Beyond flash flooding, area rivers are surpassing their flood stages and more rain is on the way.  This so far does not look like another situation like we saw in 2008, but some areas that are flood prone will likely be affected as the week rolls on.

We’ll continue to monitor the severe weather threat today and update you with any changes as well as bring you live coverage if needed today or tonight.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: