The headline tells it all. A very active weather pattern is setting up across the Upper Midwest for the next few days. This will mean a lot of heat, a lot of thunderstorms and potentially a lot of rain which could add to recent flooding concerns.
For now we’re going to focus on today. With the exception of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms today, much of Iowa should stay dry through the day and night. There could be some severe thunderstorm development either late this afternoon or early evening in portions of western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. There are some good dynamics in this region that could produce an isolated tornado or two, as well as large hail and strong damaging winds.
Overall the severe storms, if they develop, should stay relatively scattered through much of the evening, but as we move into the overnight hours that could change. We expect a low level jet to rear its ugly head into Iowa very late tonight, threatening to produce a nocturnal MCS. This complex of thunderstorms could produce some large hail and strong damaging winds. Another concern will be the potentially heavy rain that could come with it for areas of Iowa that have already seen several inches in recent weeks.
Again, all of this is relatively conditional so we will keep a close eye on any changes to the forecast. The severe weather and flooding threat will continue into the weekend, we’ll have more on that coming up later today.