The risk are for Sunday has changed dramatically as forecasters get a better handle on what they believe is going to happen. First of all I want to stress Sunday’s risk is, once again, primarily for the threat of strong, damaging winds.
With that in mind, the potential for two rounds of strong storms exists. The first should hit the state relatively early Sunday morning, a remnant of storms which develop to our west Saturday Night.
Then it’s all a matter of getting some sun on Sunday and doing it all over again. Take a look at the risk probabilities forecasted for the Upper Midwest on Sunday. You’ll notice the large, hatched out area with the 30% risk.
I anticipate once things become a little clearer Sunday Morning we could see a large portion of this are upgraded to a moderate risk. That could include a large area of Iowa as well. Again the primary threat is for a large scare, wind producing line of storms to race across a number of states during the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday.
While this is not a great situation in terms of storm chasing, it is concerning when it comes to damage. As I’ve stated repeatedly in recent days, large wind storms like this, sometimes called a derecho, can produce just as much if not more damage than a tornado.
If a storm system reaches a regional size, affecting many states, it can cause widespread damage over hundreds of miles in just a matter of hours. This is something that forecasters will certainly watch out for as developments unfold on Sunday.
This is the last update we expect before tomorrow, we’ll try and bring you our first update on the severe weather threat for Sunday early in the morning with updates throughout the day as needed.
As I said in an earlier post, this is only the start of a pattern that just won’t quit. Take a look at the risk area for Monday to the left. As you can see very little will change. The risk for wind is there once again, and as wave after wave of strong storms hit the state, flood concerns will grow as already saturated areas face the threat of several more inches of rain in the coming days.