As of 9AM our pesky frontal boundary was draped east to west across Iowa in the vicinity of highway 30. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the state just south of the frontal system. Current surface maps also indicate a weak secondary low pressure over the tama area. All of this put together is creating a lot of uncertainty about today’s threat of severe weather.
Long story short, all the ingredients are there. The Storm Prediction Center is focusing its attention on areas of southwest Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas for tornadic development. For the sake of eastern Iowa (and my gas bill), I do NOT want to drive that far again.
There are two main problems in our path for thunderstorm development this afternoon. The first is this morning’s leftover showers. We need the storms to get out of the picture so that the atmosphere can recharge and destabilize with the help of some sun. In portions of southwest Iowa this morning, this is already occurring.
Second, the always troublesome cap. A growing cap should limit thunderstorm development over much of Iowa until late afternoon or early evening. If this cap is broken, rapid thunderstorm development is possible all along the front. Shear parameters are favorable for supercell development, especially in areas along and just south of Highway 30.
At any rate, this will take several hours of monitoring and hopefully very little time to get into position if, in fact, a chase is possible today. As always be sure to check out facebook fan page. If we deploy today, that’s where you’ll find the most up to date information.