Sunday Severe Weather Outbreak on Tap, Only Question Now is Where?

day2otlk_0600An active weather pattern continues over Iowa in the coming days, setting the stage for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of those storms are expected to turn severe as a strong storm system moves through the Upper Midwest.  But forecast models are having a very difficult time pinpointing the exact track of the most potent of two storm systems that will impact Iowa over the next four days.

We begin with tomorrow’s storm system.  A warm front is expected to lift through the state, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms to Iowa Thursday and Thursday Night. You can see in the graphic to the right that the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring a risk for severe weather in Missouri, just to our south.  As storms develop and move into Iowa, it’s possible some areas could see large hail, but otherwise no major severe weather event is expected Thursday Night.

Then we turn to Saturday as a strong storm system moves into the Upper Midwest.  There is a large amount of uncertainty concerning the timing, location and intensity of this storm.  Even so, the SPC remains confident of a multi-day severe weather threat for Iowa stretching through the entire weekend.

day48probWe start with Saturday (the day 4 risk area in red in the graphic to the left).  You can see a figurative bulls eye painted over the state.  I am somewhat concerned about this risk area because there is still a lot of uncertainty over what this threat entails.  A warm front is set to move through the state which could produce severe weather, but I feel this risk, at least at this time, is a bit overblown.  I’m more concerned about the risk area for Sunday when a low pressure and trailing cold front sweep through the state.  This appears the timeframe we’ll see a more substantial severe weather outbreak across the state and a much larger portion of the central United States.

At this time it’s terribly difficult to get into any details of this event.  Forecast models have put the low anywhere from Minnesota to Kansas this weekend which is making a solid forecast very tough to nail down.  I would not be surprised if the threat areas changed dramatically in the next 48 hours as confidence in the overall patter hopefully grows.  For now all we can do is continue monitoring the latest trends and bring you updates when the conditions warrant.  We’ll bring you another update if needed this afternoon but expect a more detailed up tomorrow morning.

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