For a severe risk that the Storm Prediction Center has maintained over several days, I’m apprehensive to say much of anything is going to happen Sunday and Monday. Although the GFS and NAM significantly slow down the storm system, the SPC maintains a high-end slight risk of severe weather over the northern portion of Iowa.
At first I thought the reason behind this was the chance of a overnight wind/hail event on Sunday, but that does not look promising. I must admit this isn’t the first time the SPC had me scratching my head. A slight risk over southern Iowa on Friday certainly did not materialize into anything. Eventually the risk was taken down.
I have a hunch this is something that could happen to Sunday’s threat for Iowa. The 1730z outlook (12:30pm) will be an interesting one. If the Storm Prediction Center continues to maintain the risk, Barry and I will make preparations for a chase and continue to monitor tonight’s model runs.
Looking ahead to Monday, another threat exists. But like Sunday the timing could be a bit off. The risk also greatly depends on the position of the frontal boundaries. Friday was a good example of the difficulties the models have had in accurately placing these boundaries. As with Sunday, we will continue to monitor.