While rain will be on the increase late tonight into early Monday morning, we will be watching what unfolds to the south of Iowa on Monday. A large area of severe weather will be likely on Monday from the lower to middle Mississippi valley, to the Tennessee valley. Strong storms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes will be likely.
The greatest severe weather threat on Monday will extend from the mid-south and lower/middle Mississippi River Valley to the Tennessee Valley (red outlined area). This is where the greatest damaging wind and tornado threat will exist. Some of the tornadoes in this area may be strong.
A squall line will likely be ongoing Monday morning across eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and western Arkansas. As this line ahead of the cold front continues to advance to the east, it will move into an conductive environment for severe weather. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s with CAPE values ranging from 500 J/kg – 1500 J/kg. This will fuel the storms allowing for damaging winds and some tornadoes. As this line continues to propagate off to the east overnight Monday, the severe weather threat will become more isolated.
We will be keeping an eye on this system as right now only a slight risk for severe weather exists across the south, but a moderate risk may be issued in the coming update. If you have any friends or family in this outlined area, make sure to give them a heads up to make sure they are aware of storm threats. A little over 42 million people live in this slight risk area, with 11 million of them living in the greatest risk area.