Hopefully you got outdoors to enjoy the weather today as the next 48 to 72 hours are going to get active. Before we dive on into this forecast, we want to note that there remains a high amount of uncertainty in the models, which will lead to a lot of wiggle room for things to change.
Tonight, storms will develop across Kansas and Nebraska, and will push off to the northeast. By early Wednesday, mainly after 3am, a line of strong storms will enter into western Iowa. This line of storms will have the potential to produce strong winds, and very large hail. Might be a safe bet to pull the cars into the garage tonight. As this line of storms approaches central Iowa, it appears that they will weaken and eventually die off. This should occur near the 7 to 8am time frame.
This will then set up for a break in the rain Wednesday. It even appears that the sun will peak in and out during the afternoon. This will create for more instability, and provide the fuel for additional thunderstorm development. The one key factor that will be missing, which will need to be monitored, is the lack of a forcing mechanism. Even though the atmosphere will be primed Wednesday afternoon, the models are not showing any new development Wednesday afternoon.
The lack of additional thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, will allow for an even more primed atmosphere on Thursday. The only question with Thursday, is where thunderstorms will develop. The models have not locked in on a solution yet, so this is something that we will be keeping an eye on. Storms that do develop Thursday will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado. As to where the greatest threat exists, this will need to be pinpointed down tomorrow afternoon.
Rain will continue Friday through the end of the weekend. Some of this rainfall could be heavy at times. Continue to check back to IowaChase.com for the very latest updates.