Today’s severe threat should remain confined to western Iowa. With greater chances of strong storms to our northwest in the Dakotas. After last night’s marginally severe line, another late night event is possible, unless heating of the day storms can get going this afternoon.
On Thursday, remnants of tonight’s storms will be ongoing over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. These storms are expected to redevelop or intensify as they push into northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. This is the area where the greatest risk of tornadoes exist on Thursday.
There is a small chance of severe thunderstorms over a larger area of Iowa on Thursday. But as the wave of energy pushes through the state, it’s expected that a strong cap will hold for most of the evening, preventing development except over the area closest to the low in northeast Iowa.
A more widespread event is possible on Friday, but there are some serious hurdles to overcome. A strong cap is expected to be in place over Iowa. That could delay the development of severe thunderstorms for a few hours until the cap weakens or breaks.
All in all a busy few days in the weather department, we will continue to monitor the risk every day. We will continue to monitor the situation and try to provide updates when we can. Anticipate another debrief this evening once new model runs are in regarding the severe potential for tomorrow.
Looking towards the extended, most of the weekend should stay dry but storm chances will return next week.