After a couple rounds of rain and cooler temperatures, we are starting to change it up a bit. A warm front has pushed through the state this morning, ushering in warmer temperatures and a few morning thunderstorms. Tomorrow will start out sunny and will continue to be warm, with highs in the mid 80s. Clouds will be on the increase tomorrow as a cold front will start to approach the state from the northwest bringing with it the chance of severe weather. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for most of central and eastern Iowa tomorrow.
As the afternoon progresses, destabilization will take place during the day, combined with 60 degree dew points and rich low-level moisture will help fuel storms tomorrow afternoon. CAPE values will also be in the 2000-2500 J/kg range which will help add to the development of thunderstorms. The more favorable vertical shear will likely remain post frontal which will be a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat. Storms are expected to strengthen along and ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. The main threats tomorrow will be isolated damaging wind and large hail.
A positive out of all of this will be the rain. Rainfall totals will range from a half of an inch to an inch with locally higher amounts possible. Western Iowa will see less rain with totals ranging from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. We will continue to monitor the risk of severe weather tomorrow and will continue to bring you updates on our facebook page, and right here at Iowachase.com.