Tornado season has started off very quiet this year. But could that all change this weekend? A multi-day severe event will be expected this weekend. Saturday will be the first chance of severe weather, and this is where a slight risk has already been issued by the storm prediction center.
All three modes of severe weather will be possible on Saturday. This risk extends from Nebraska, all the way down into southern Texas. The low will then continue to slide off to the east Saturday evening, and as it does, rain will begin to increase from the west. There is the potential that we will see a few strong storms Saturday overnight in the state. Rain will continue through the morning hours on Sunday.
From the image above, the best chance of severe weather Sunday afternoon will be across southwest Iowa. This is where the best dynamics will be to support large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Right now there are a few items of concerns. One of them being the on going precipitation Sunday morning as this will hold the instability down. The models are showing a small break in the rain in the early afternoon and this should allow the instability to increase. If it does not, then the severe threat will be lowered.
The future radar above is at 7pm Sunday evening. This depicts thunderstorms starting to enter southwest Iowa at that time.
Right now the greatest risk for tornadoes will be across a few of the southwest counties. As we stated above, there are a few things that will change this forecast. We are still a few days away from this event, so we will be keeping an eye on this and will bring you the very latest updates on our Facebook and Twitter pages, and right here at iowachase.com.