Stormy Pattern Returns

day1otlk_1300 Parts of Iowa won’t get through the long holiday weekend without a rumble or two of thunder.  The Storm Prediction Center has posted a “see text” for the region.  Late this afternoon and into the evening a cold front is expected to push through Iowa.

There is little expected to prevent the frontal boundary from triggering showers and thunderstorms this evening.  But the overall threat for severe weather remains low.  That’s because there’s little shear in the atmosphere, giving storms little chance to become better organized.

So at this time it appears brief strong thunderstorms are possible across the state this afternoon and evening.  As storms develop, large hail is possible.  As they weaken, a brief wind gust could reach severe limits, causing isolated damage.

This is not a storm system you can chase because there is no clear area where you could expect this to happen.  A better chance for organized severe weather will reach Iowa once the work week begins again.

day3otlk_0730 Tuesday, the SPC has already posted a slight risk for the entire state.  A stronger and better organized storm system is expected to push through Iowa, this time with more instability in the atmosphere and more shear capable of sustaining severe thunderstorms.

There are still a lot of questions with Tuesday’s storm system, but at this time it appears Tuesday won’t be the only day this week strong storms will threaten Iowa.  Much is expected to change between now and Tuesday simply because forecast models are having a tough time handling this system.

day3prob_0730 Today it appears western Iowa stands the best chance to see organized severe weather develop on Tuesday.  Overall the state could see a MCS event, with widespread severe weather possible, translating in a heavier rain event to the east.

As the storm system stalls over the Upper Midwest, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the week.  But will little agreement between forecast models, nailing down the exact threat of severe weather remains difficult today.

For now we’ll keep watch on any storms that develop in Iowa today and continue to monitor the threat for Tuesday as it draws closer.

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