A threat of severe weather never materialized on Sunday. A strong atmospheric cap never weakened, as a result, thunderstorms did not get going until well after sunset. Those storms only produced small hail for a brief time in extreme southeast Iowa. Tonight a similar scenario is taking shape but in a different part of the state.
A slight risk for severe weather is posted for western areas of Iowa. This is the area where strong thunderstorms could develop after sunset tonight, capable of producing large hail. It’s a not a strong threat but either way, thunderstorms are expected to linger in the vicinity of a warm front that will set up shop over the state. This slight chance for severe weather sets the stage for a much greater threat of strong storms Tuesday Afternoon.
As the center of the storm settles over northwest Iowa on Tuesday, it will leave a frontal boundary that should slice the state in half. This front boundary, just east of the low, might be the best place to see supercell development on Tuesday. These storms, if they form, would be capable of producing all modes of severe weather: strong damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.
Take a look at the graphic to the left. This is the risk probabilities for Tuesday. You can see a substantially high risk for severe weather. This forecast is scheduled for an update sometime around 12:30pm. When that update comes in we plan on taking a closer look at the threat and bringing you a full update.
As for today’s threat, we’ll provide updates when/if needed later today and tonight. But right now the main focus is on the larger threat on Tuesday, the first day area storm chasers might have to hit the road.