After an extended dry spell,the weather pattern across the central US is expected to become active once again later this week. But the track of the coming storm systems should keep the main threat of severe weather to the south of Iowa.
Model runs are not very consistent so the Storm Prediction Center is not settling on any long-range risk area. At this time however it appears the best chance for severe weather this week lies south and west of Iowa on Thursday and Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms should make their way into the state on Friday and Saturday, but being on the north side of the storm system should prevent any stronger storms from organizing over the state.
Currently, the long range models are not having a good time with the track of the weekend storm system. Although possible the storm center could push further north and track over Iowa, I’m not seeing much in the way of instability over the state.
All in all looks like it could be a rainy weekend, but not a chase kind of weekend. Until then enjoy some quiet and relatively warm weather through Thursday. No 80’s of course byt 60’s and sunshine are still pretty good for this time of year.