A bit of a change in our thinking or a final crack at severe weather. Due to a deceleration in the storm system tracking through the Upper Midwest this week, the state could face two rounds of severe weather, starting tomorrow.
To the left is the current severe weather risk posted for tomorrow by the Storm Prediction Center. You can see the focus lies in western portions of Iowa. Overall the greatest threat for strong storms lies well to the south of Iowa where a dryline is expected to serve as the focal point for supercellular development. Here in Iowa, storms might hold off for most if not all of the daytime hours as a strong cap strangles the atmosphere of its ability to produce thunderstorms.
As that cap weakens Wednesday night and the low level jet picks up steam after sunset, storms could fire up or move in from the southwest and track across the state during the nighttime and overnight hours. The primary threat from these storms would be large hail, but strong winds and a few tornadoes are not out of the question.
There is a lot of uncertainty over the final track of this storm system and the dynamics in place will not be the greatest, so for now this remains a very conditional slight risk. It’s likely we’ll see some strong storms in the state, but a widespread outbreak remains in doubt.
After all is said and done, it appears quieter weather will settle in to the area, eliminating any chance for severe weather here in Iowa for several days.