As a renewed surge of warmer air reaches the state this week, the threat of rain has returned with it. A strong storm system responsible for several tornadoes last night in Kansas will continue to produce severe weather, most of which will stay south of Iowa.
The tough aspects to nail down with this storm system are the timing and placement of the frontal boundaries which will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development. For now let’s focus on what we know will happen. A large area of showers and thunderstorms will dampen any threat for severe weather tonight for much of the state.
The one exception to this rule is far southwest Iowa, where some strong storms could trickle in from the south and west later tonight. No major severe weather is expected but some large hail could fall in this area later tonight.
As the front begins to push to the east on Saturday, it WOULD set up a good, chaseable threat for severe weather across parts of Iowa. But with ongoing precipitation and poor timing, it’s expected that the threat for severe weather will actually occur south and east of Iowa on Saturday. This doesn’t mean Iowa will stay dry however. This threat does need to be closely monitored for any changes in the current forecast, but recent model runs have done a good job picking up and tracking this storm system so I would say the odds are not all that great.
All in all, a wet, dreary weekend in store for most of Iowa. This is especially unfortunately for weekend plans as the wedding and graduation season has arrived. Hopefully those of you who had plans outdoors this weekend have a backup plan, you might need it.