Snowmen Are A Little Flakey

GFS Beta Precip QPFWe still continue to watch the latest model outputs for the potential of accumulating snow on Saturday. Right now, it appears that southeast Iowa is still in the sweet spot, but there are some interesting developments. Starting first with the GFS parallel, which is shown above, you can see an area of low pressure will be moving across Missouri on Saturday. Note, these snowfall accumulation graphics are not forecast, but just the latest outputs. These will be changing over the next couple of days.

GFS Beta Snowfall TotalsThe GFS parallel, does have a narrow band of moderate snowfall totals across southeast Iowa, however, it has a steep cut off the further northwest you go.

NAM Snowfall TotalsThe NAM is now out through 6pm Saturday, so now we can start to throw this model into the mix. At this time, it appears to be lighter with snowfall accumulations and also targeting the southeast portion of the state.

GFS Snowfall TotalsHowever, when you compare the GFS parallel and NAM to the operational GFS, there are some notable differences. The GFS has a more widespread area of snow that does give most of the state accumulating snow.

cmc_snow_acc_east_18The Canadian model, also known as the GEM, also shows a similar solution to the the operational GFS. Because of these model differences, we will have to continue to watch and see if the models can agree on just how far northwest this snow will make it. The operational GFS and GEM does have the low moving in the perfect spot for accumulating snow across central and southeast Iowa. On the flip side, the NAM and parallel GFS have not bought into this solution yet. We will continue to watch all of the very latest trends so check back here for all of the latest developments.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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