After waking up this morning to a freshly fallen 1″ to 5″ of snow, more snow will be likely on Monday. A quick moving clipper will be dropping down from the northwest, which will bring the potential for another couple inches of snow. As to where this snow will accumulate seems to be the biggest question this evening. As shown above, the latest National Weather Service forecast has the greatest snow accumulating across central Iowa. A very similar track to today’s snowfall.
However, if you look at all of the models, only a couple of them agree with that thinking. Some of the models are further to the northeast with this tack, while one of the models is across southwest Iowa. The 18z RPM and NAM only provide extreme northeast Iowa with a chance of accumulating snowfall as shown above this paragraph.
The 18z WRF is further to the southwest compared to the NAM and RPM, but still to the northeast of the National Weather Service forecast.
Out of all of the models, the 18z GFS is the closest one to the National Weather Service Forecast. If we were allowed to post the ECWMF, it has the snowfall even further to the southwest compared to the GFS.
These clipper systems are often difficult to forecast the track as they have a mind of there own. We will continue to monitor the very latest trends in the models, but right now our current thinking is that the greatest potential for accumulating snow will occur across the northeast half of the state. Continue to check back to iowachase.com for the very latest information.