Slight Risk Wednesday

Last night we told you about the potential for severe storms in the state by Wednesday. We still continue to watch this threat, as storms may be severe by Wednesday afternoon.

hires_t2m_iowa_58On Wednesday, temperatures will be climbing into the mid to upper 70’s across the state with dew points in the 50’s. With the return of the warmer weather, comes the instability, one of the many key ingredients for severe weather.

hires_t2m_iowa_61A cold front will be moving through the state by Wednesday afternoon/evening which will be the trigger mechanism for these storms. In the image above, which is at 7pm, you can already see the cooler air starting to move into the state from the northwest behind the cold front.

hires_ref_iowa_58 Storms will begin to form along the cold front from Minnesota back through northeast Nebraska. This line of storm will then continue to advance off to the southeast as the cold front continues to move through the state.

hires_ref_iowa_61By 7pm, we are expecting these storms to line out and form a line of storms. Because of this, the main threats of severe weather will be large hail and damaging winds. It may be possible early on when storms are isolated, that a tornado or two may form. However, it appears that this tornado potential is very low and would occur early on.

nam_total_precip_mc_28Both the GFS and NAM are forecasting moderate rainfall totals from this system. The NAM, which is shown above, is showing the heavier rainfall totals across western Iowa. Where the GFS has the heavier rainfall totals further to the east than the NAM.

To recap, the main threats with this system on Wednesday afternoon will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. We will continue to track all of the very latest developments, so continue checking back here for all the latest updates.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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