Well here we go, portions of Iowa return to a severe weather risk today. But in my mind there is very little to get excited about. It is likely whatever severe weather the state sees this evening will be minimal. A potent cap could be in place and moisture will likely be limited with the gulf cut off.
Saturday appears to be a relatively quiet day with a surface high making its way through the state, giving us a break before a better chance of severe weather on Sunday. That day the front boundary will push through the state, and as always, the exact timing and placement of that boundary will be crucial to our chase prospects.
At this time, the risk for Sunday (Day 3) paints a target over the northern third of Iowa. It also suggests a late-day event a bit west of eastern Iowa. That could change depending on the final set up we see on Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather are possible as waves of energy attempt to tap into building instability throughout the day.
So despite today’s severe weather risk there are no plans to chase today. Our focus remains on Sunday’s potential risk. Although the front will progress through the state that day we will not see the last of it. Already the Storm Prediction Center is posting a risk for Monday and warns of less organized severe weather possibilities as we move into next week.
Overall a very unsettled weather pattern in shaping up in the coming days after an extended period of cool and relatively quiet weather here in Iowa. Our spring season of severe weather appears to be a few weeks late, but it’s still coming.