Although this is Labor Day, mother nature is giving forecasters and storm chasers plenty to keep an eye on in eastern Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for much of Iowa today. A cold front will push through the state this evening. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms will rapidly develop, capable of all modes of severe weather.
Conditions in the atmosphere are pretty supportive of supercells and tornadic development, but a cap should prevent any organized development through most of the afternoon. Once storms do fire during the late afternoon or early evening hours, a short 1-2 hour window will exist for tornadoes to develop.
This is of special concern because of the wind profiles over Iowa. If a storm can produce a tornado, it’s possible the vortex could sustain a strong tornado. For now, as you can see in the graphic to the right, the Storm Prediction Center is going with a 5% risk over much of Iowa. If the window of opportunity was longer the overall risk would be much higher.
At any rate, the cold front will sweep through the area bringing comfortable conditions and temperatures slightly below normal to Iowa for the week. Our next chance of rain comes during the second half of the week when a tropical system pushes into the Upper Midwest.
We’ll continue to monitor the situation as this storm system moves through and bring you updates when needed here on iowachase.com