Over the past few days, we have been telling you about the chance for severe weather this week. As we are approaching closer, there are some concerns with the severe chances.
We will first start off by talking about tonight into tomorrow. From the image above, a stationary/warm front is currently sitting to our south. This will continue to push to the north this afternoon and evening, allowing temperatures to soar into the 80s and even 90s tomorrow. As this front lifts to the north, it is possible that it could fire off a few thunderstorms late this evening into tomorrow morning, mainly across northern Iowa. A few of these storms may produce some hail, but no widespread severe weather will be expected.
As temperatures climb tomorrow, so will the humidity. This will allow the potential for storms to form. However, at this time, the atmosphere looks to remain capped, and this will put a damper on our rain chances tomorrow. As the evening sets in, this is when storms will be allowed to form. There will be enough shear and instability that a few of these nocturnal storms will be capable of producing large hail, and potentially an isolated damaging wind threat.
Rain will continue to move through the state on Thursday morning, before eventually a brief break in the rain by mid day. This break will allow instability to build back up again. Now if we do not see a break in the rain, then this will have an impact on the afternoon rain chances. However, at this current time, it does appear that we will get a break in the rain and this will help fuel storms by Thursday afternoon.
From the image above, you can see storms will begin to form over the I-35 corridor after 5pm Thursday. East of I-35 and south of I-80 looks to have the greatest chance for severe weather, but anywhere in the slight risk zone will have the potential for severe weather. The main threats on Thursday will be large hail and damaging winds. Right now the tornado threat appears to be low, with the better chance across Minnesota. This is something that we will keep an eye on very closely and will bring you all the latest updates on our Facebook and Twitter pages, as well as right here at Iowachase.com.