Today’s severe weather should, for the most part, stay far west of Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has placed extreme western Iowa in the slight risk for today. It is questionable whether storms will really travel that far east tonight and still produce severe weather.
If storms manage to stretch into Iowa tonight the primary threat from these storms would be strong damaging winds. There’s little to no chance of any large hail or tornadoes here in Iowa tonight. Timing on this storms should be very late in the evening if not closer towards Thursday morning.
Which brings us to another threat for severe weather on Thursday. As you can see in the graphic to the right, a good portion of central and eastern Iowa finds itself under this threat. There are a lot of uncertainties that remain with this risk. Although it appears likely storms will develop over Iowa, it’s unclear the nature of the atmosphere when that happens.
Forecast models are having a tough time pinning down the amount of energy and the effective wind shear the storms will have to play with. If this changes for the worse, we could see a greater threat of tornadoes as storms develop Thursday afternoon. It’s something to watch out for but for now a general risk is posted and we’ll stick with that.
We’ll continue to monitor the latest updates throughout the day and bring you an update on tomorrow’s threat later this afternoon.