Severe Weather Threat Returns… Sort Of

day2probotlk_0600_anySafe to say it’s been relatively quiet here across Iowa in recent weeks.  But that is all about to change very soon.  A storm system is set to bring a warm front into the area which will play host to several chances of showers and thunderstorms.

These storms could produce some severe weather, but at this time that threat appears to be rather low.  Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has posted an overall 5% risk for severe weather over parts of southern Iowa on Sunday.  You can see the area highlighted in the graphic to the left.  Now I want to stress that a risk probability this low doesn’t even constitute a “slight risk.”  This just covers the potential for a random storm or two that can dig into the atmosphere enough to produce a brief wind gust and/or some large hail.  No organized severe weather threat is expected across the state on Sunday.

day3prob_0730The story sort of repeats itself for Monday.  To the right you can see the 5% risk area that exists across the state on that day.  Again, storms may fire along the frontal boundary and could produce a severe report or two somewhere over Iowa.  Nothing to be overly concerned about at this time.  Along with this warm front will come a massive amount of warm air from the south.  This should cause a dramatic rise in temperatures by Tuesday.  That’s the day much of Iowa should see temperatures in the 80’s, and portions of southwest Iowa may hit the 90 degree mark.  Quite a change from the past few weeks right?

Beyond this, there is the question of what will happen on Wednesday as this storm system begins to exit the area.  I can tell you the computer models have had NO agreement whatsoever, further complicating things is the timing and placement as well as the speed of the storm system as it moves out.  All of this could play a role in whether or not we see any severe weather during the second half of this week.

For now, we’ll continue to keep an eye out for the threat of strong storms, isolated or organized, this week.  At this time there does not appear to be any major threats for strong storms, but if the pattern shifts just a little bit, we could see a more substantial threat for severe weather sometime around the Wednesday timeframe as the storm system begins to push north and east.

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