We have been getting questions asked about the chance of severe weather this weekend, so we wanted to take a minute to break down this weekend and explain how it will unfold. A low pressure system will develop in the lee of the Rockies and will push eastward across the plains tracking over Nebraska, and South Dakota. A secondary low will deepen and lift to the northeast across Iowa on Sunday, and this will provide multiple rounds of precipitation to Iowa throughout the weekend. The best chance for precipitation will be on Saturday morning as this is when the best forcing and moisture return will occur. The shear out ahead of this system is very limited, as the best shear will arrive with the boundary, and this will happen after dark. Because of this, no major severe weather is anticipated on Saturday. If any storms do become severe, the main risks will be hail and an isolated damaging wind threat.
There will be a break in the precipitation Saturday night before the second low begins the lift into the state Sunday. This is where the models start to have issues handling the low. What looks to be the case is the low will quickly lift to the north, limiting chances for precipitation on Sunday. What we do know, is cold air will push in behind the system, however, the coldest air will arrive after the precipitation, so there is no chance for snow. We will continue to monitor the chance for severe weather over the next 48 hours, so keep checking back to our Facebook page and right here at Iowachase.com for further updates.