Thunderstorms have persisted over Iowa in recent days, but for the most part have remain isolated and/or below severe limits. That could change this afternoon as a more organized threat of severe weather rears its ugly head.
You can see the area in the graphic to the left where the Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for severe weather. This narrow area focuses on a boundary that will set up shop somewhere over the state, most likely over portions of northern Iowa.
This boundary will serve as a focal point for severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon. The atmosphere will be very unstable and a cap should be weak enough that storms can overcome it. This explosive development should yield a few supercells, capable of all modes of severe weather. Current parameters make the threat of large hail pretty low, but some shear could help produce a few tornadoes. Overall the primary threat is strong damaging winds.
Even so, we will monitor the threat of tornadoes this afternoon, you can see in the graphic to the right that there is a slightly elevated risk for tornadoes to develop over parts of northern Iowa. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and bring you the very latest throughout the day.