Severe Weather Right Around the Corner?

April Calendar In my experience, the first week or two of April generally brings an early dose of severe weather to Iowa.  With that in mind, eastern Iowa is facing a pair of storm systems that might do just that.

Of course I want to be clear, this is all very speculative since it’s still 4-7 days away and forecast models do not seem to be in any agreement on the timing or placement of these storm systems.

gfs_slp_090m The first enters the weather picture on Friday.  A low pressure system will make its way into the Upper Midwest and begin tapping into our newfound warmth and moisture.  This is where the uncertainty comes in.  The GFS model this morning indicates strong convection Friday afternoon to our west and pushes it into eastern Iowa in the evening and overnight hours.

nam_slp_084m That would not be a good setup for a threat of severe weather.  But the NAM model this morning is quite different.  Holding back the low to our west and limiting thunderstorm development on Friday.  Beyond that is anyone’s guess because these features are on the very end of the NAM’s range. 

gfs_slp_168m Looking further ahead, a more potent system will swing through the Midwest on Tuesday.  It appears if any severe threat is considered from this storm system, it would be the threat of a warm front swinging south to north through eastern Iowa.

This type of storm system is tough because the storms travel in an unusual direction and are harder to track and predict.  Either way it all bears watching as we inch closer to Friday and next Tuesday.

day48prob For now, the SPC is not forecasting any severe weather threat for Iowa in its extended products, but that doesn’t mean anything.  There must be strong indications for a severe weather threat more than four days out.  With computer models disagreeing with one another, it’s far too early to predict with any certainty that these storm systems will generate severe weather in the Hawkeye State.

For now, we continue to watch the model trends and see which seem the most reliable.  For now I’m siding with the NAM.  It does not overdo the rainfall and development on Friday like the GFS and its storm track seems a little more accurate for an early April storm.

We will continue to post updates on these storm systems throughout the week, including any changes to the going forecast.  Until they arrive, i strong suggest you enjoy what’s preceding them… shorts weather!

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