Severe weather with the threats for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible across the central plains Wednesday. The greatest threat will extend from northern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, western and northeast Missouri. This is where an enhanced risk of severe weather will be likely.
Storms will begin to form near the dry line along the Kansas/ Oklahoma border late Wednesday afternoon and will track off to the northeast. These storms will remain isolated which will allow them to become tornadic.
Eventually a warm front will begin to lift to the north out of Missouri, which will then provide our thunderstorm chances. Due to the timing of this front being after dark, this will limit our severe chances here in the state. However, a few storms may be severe Wednesday evening with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.
The surface low will then continue to lift off to the northeast throughout the morning hours Thursday right across central Iowa. This will then shift the severe threat to eastern Iowa during the afternoon hours on Thursday. The greatest risk for severe weather in the state will be extreme eastern Iowa, from Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and Ottumwa and points to the east of that line. Once again, the main threats appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. As this system continues to slide out of the state Thursday afternoon, the risks will increase across northern Illinois, and this is where a few tornadoes will be possible. However, it is closely being monitored for the potential that a few storms may be strong enough to produce a tornado back here in the state across far eastern Iowa.
The weather begins to quiet down by Friday just in time for the weekend. We will have two chase teams out tomorrow across central Kansas tracking this system back to the state. Continue to check back here for all the very latest developments as we will be keeping a very close eye on things.