This week is going to be an active weather week across much of tornado alley. Several systems this week will provide the chance for rain, thunderstorms, and even the potential for severe weather. A large trough will be moving across the central plains which will provide the potential for severe weather.
Starting off Monday, we will have a marginal risk of severe storms across southern Iowa. This risk will be mainly late Monday night into early Tuesday with the main risk being large hail.
Tuesday, the severe weather threat will shift to the south across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri, but it will once again it will be a marginal risk. This unstable airmass will be capped which will inhibit thunderstorm development, but the few storms that do develop will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Wednesday is when things will become very active, and a day that should closely be monitored, especially if you live across Kansas and Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will begin to develop late afternoon Wednesday ahead of a dryline that will extend from Kansas down through Oklahoma. The ingredients ahead of this dryline will support long lived supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.
Thursday is when the models begin to divert and become cloudy. This is something that we will closely be monitoring as the potential does exist for severe weather here in the state, especially across eastern Iowa. It appears that a surface low with a warm front extending to the east from the low will be lifting to the north out of northern Missouri/eastern Kansas. This could bring the key ingredients for an active severe weather day in the state. It is still very uncertain as the models are not agreeing with one another on this set up, so continue to check back on the very latest.
We will have multiple chase teams out starting Tuesday tracking this severe weather threat. Continue to stay with us all week as we will continue to bring you live video updates from the field and daily forecast updates.