The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the threat for severe weather in southwest Iowa to a moderate risk Wednesday Morning. The threat comes as a low pressure system and adjoining warm front inch closer to the state.
Strong storms are expected to develop around mid-afternoon and could quickly develop into supercells. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
Here in eastern Iowa, the threat of severe weather is there but I anticipate at best we’re looking at an overnight event. Our best shot for severe weather now appears to come on Thursday as the warm front pushes through the area.
But even on Thursday, there remains plenty of concern over the timing of this system. Although the energy and instability is there for severe weather at almost any time of the day or night, lack of good timing would limit the overall tornadic threat for eastern Iowa.
Current model trends put the system past eastern Iowa on Friday, pushing the severe threat for that day well to our east. Of course this could change between now and then, but at this time that does not look likely.
We will continue to monitor today’s situation in southwest Iowa and prepare for any chase that could be needed in our area tomorrow.